July 31, 2003
Americans on Intervention in Liberia
Support for Contributing US Troops to Liberia Soft but Growing
A poll on contributing US troops to a UN peacekeeping operation in Liberia, conducted by Gallup July 25-27, finds a strong 63% approving – up from 57% when Gallup asked the same question July 7-9. This upward movement may be in response to increased reporting on the situation there and the US beginning to position troops for eventual participation.
However, other polling conducted over the last month reveals strikingly variable responses suggesting that support is soft and not well formed.
A new PIPA/Knowledge Networks poll conducted July 11-20 with 1,066 respondents finds that a plurality of 48% supports contributing US troops with 41% opposed.
An analysis of polls from other organizations finds support ranging from a high of 63% in the most recent Gallup poll to a low of 35% in a July 15-16 Fox News poll. Other polls were from Newsweek (51% support), Christian Science Monitor (51%), Zogby (46%), ABC/Washington Post (41%), and Time/CNN (35-43%).
An analysis of the wording of the various poll questions also reveals some of the variables influencing responses. The highest level of support is found in poll questions that make it clear that other countries would also be contributing troops, that it is a peacekeeping operation, and that it would be under the auspices of the United Nations. The lowest level of support tends to be found in polls that do not mention these items and use phrases that are ambiguous about what the operation would be doing or imply that the troops would be actively involved in enforcement activity in the midst of an active civil war. Support also tends to be lower when the question about Liberia followed a series of questions that required respondents to think about the costs and risks of the war with Iraq.
What all this suggests is that support is likely to solidify if the operation is clearly perceived as a multilateral operation under the United Nations and is likely to erode if it appears that the situation in Liberia is so unstable that the operation will likely require not just peacekeeping but active enforcement against parties engaged in hostilities. Developments in Iraq may also influence whether Americans are feeling overstretched by the operation there.
Americans on Iran
US Public Opposes War With Iran
A new PIPA/Knowledge Networks poll and an analysis of polling from other organizations reveal that a large majority opposes going to war with Iran. At the same time a majority would consider using limited military force against an identified Iranian nuclear weapons program, provided that the action were approved by the UN Security Council. But a very strong majority prefers dealing with Iran by pursuing a diplomatic approach and working through the UN.
Asked, “Do you think, in the near future, the US should or should not go to war to overthrow the government of Iran?” 69% said that it should not, while just 20% said it should. This is very close to 67% that opposed the US going to war with Iran in a June 27-29 CNN/USA Today poll.
Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes comments, “In dealing with Iran, Americans show a strong preference for an approach based on diplomacy and multilateralism over the use of military threats.” Asked in the PIPA/KN poll how “the US should deal with the government of Iran” 74% said the US should do so primarily by “trying to build better relations,” while just 21% favored, “Pressuring it with implied threats that the US may use military force against it.”
A strong majority of Americans also support the idea of the UN taking the lead in dealing with the problem of Iran—a course of action that Americans may assume would be less likely to lead to the use of force. Asked what would be the better approach “when it comes to trying to make sure that Iran does not make nuclear weapons and does not support Palestinian groups that use terrorism,” 62% said it would be better “for the UN to take the lead” while just 32% said it would be better for the US to do so.
The rationale for favoring a nonmilitary approach to dealing with Iran is reflected in a May CBS News poll that asked respondents to characterize the threat from Iran. Only 9% said, “Iran is a threat to the United States that requires military action now,” while a strong majority of 66% said “Iran is a threat that can be contained.” An additional 18% said, “Iran is not a threat to the United States at all.”
At the same time a majority shows a readiness to support a more limited use of military force against an Iranian nuclear weapons program, assuming that the existence of the program is established. Respondents were asked “would you support or oppose the United States taking military action against Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.” A strong 65% said that they would and 31% said they would not. This question was a repeat of a June 18-22 ABC/Washington Post poll which found 56% approving. The question implies that it would be clear that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and thus the action could be effectively targeted to abort the effort.
Given the public’s experience with Iraq it is doubtful whether the President could get broad public support for military action based purely on the suspicion. In the PIPA/KN poll 50% said that “In the future, if the president presents evidence that a country has a secret program for building weapons of mass destruction” that they will, “feel more wary than [they] did before.”
Furthermore, a substantial portion for such limited military action is contingent on the US getting UN approval for it. PIPA/KN asked a follow on question to the 65% who said they would support the US using military force against an Iranian weapons program: “What if most members of the UN Security Council opposed such military action—in that case would you favor or oppose having US forces take military action against Iran?” The percentage that would still be willing without UN support was 50%.
The PIPA/KN poll was conducted with a nationwide sample of 1,066 respondents July 11-20. The margin of error was plus or minus 3-3.5%, depending on whether the question was administered to the whole sample or three quarters of the sample.
The poll was fielded by Knowledge Networks using its nationwide panel, which is randomly selected from the entire adult population and subsequently provided Internet access. For more information about this methodology, go to www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.
Funding for this research was provided by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the Ford Foundation.