February 3, 2006
Global Poll Finds Iran Viewed Negatively
US Continues to Get Low Marks
Views of China, Russia, France Down Sharply
Europe and Japan Viewed Most Positively
Click here to view a new BBC poll on this subject released 3/6/2007
A major BBC World Service poll exploring how people in 33 countries view various countries found not a single country where a majority has a positive view of Iran's role in the world (with the exception of Iranians themselves).
Views of Iran are lower than the US, although the US continues to get low marks, as does Russia. Views of China, France, and Russia are down sharply compared to a similar BBC World Service poll conducted at the end of 2004.
Japan is the country most widely viewed as having a positive influence, and Europe as a whole gets the most positive ratings of all.
Global views of:
Iran, United States, China, Russia, France, Japan, Europe, Britain, India
The poll of 39,435 people was conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland. The 33-nation fieldwork was coordinated by GlobeScan and completed between October 2005 and January 2006.
GlobeScan President Doug Miller remarks, "In the court of public opinion, Iran is judged a mainly negative player in the world. Russia and the US continue to languish at the lower end of the league table. Europe on the other hand continues to be seen as a mainly positive player. It will be interesting to see what impact the next year of drama over the Iranian nuclear program has on these ratings."
Steven Kull, director of the Program on International Policy Attitudes, comments: "It appears that world public opinion does not look kindly on governments engaging in suspicious nuclear activities as is the case of Iran, becoming more authoritarian as in the case of China and Russia, frustrating the needs of their immigrants as in the case of France, or occupying another country without international approval as in the case of the US. On the other hand countries and regions that engage the world primarily through soft forms of power such as the case of Japan and Europe tend to get good marks."
Iran
In 24 of the 33 countries polled, majorities (in 14 countries) or pluralities (in 10) say that Iran is having a negative influence in the world. In five other countries a plurality says that Iran is having a positive influence, but in three of these the proportion who say this is less than a third. On average across the 33 countries just 18 percent say Iran is having a positive influence while 47 percent say Iran is having a negative influence.
Countries in Europe and North America have the largest majorities expressing a negative view of Iran. The most negative are Germany (84%), the US (81%), and Italy (77%); followed by Finland (74%), Great Britain (72%), Canada (73%), France (68%), Spain (66%) and Poland (60%).
Latin America is mostly negative. Majorities in Brazil (75%) and Argentina (53%) have a negative view of Iran's influence, but Mexicans are divided (22% positive, 21% negative) with one in three not taking a position.
The only countries with a significant plurality expressing a positive view of Iran are Afghanistan (47%) and Indonesia (39%). Three other countries had small pluralities expressing a favorable view but with most not taking a position--Senegal (31%), Saudi Arabia (24%) and Sri Lanka (21%).
Steven Kull, director of PIPA says, "Iran may imagine that there are many people out there rooting for it as it defies the big powers with its nuclear program. But this poll suggests that the number of people behind it is quite small and swamped by much larger numbers who are worried about the direction Iran is going."
United States
With Iran included in this year's poll, it has displaced the US as the nation with the most countries giving it a negative rating. The poll shows that the US has lost ground in some key allied countries. Among the 20 nations polled in 2004 as well as this year, on average positive ratings have dropped five points; ratings have significantly declined in 10 of these tracking countries (including the US) while significantly improving in only five.
Within Europe there has been a hardening of negative attitudes toward America compared to a year ago. Those expressing a negative view have risen in France (from 54% to 65%), and Great Britain (50% to 57%) and in Italy a plurality of 46 percent now has a negative view of the US (only 34% positive) as compared to 2004 when 49 percent had a positive view and only 40 percent had a negative view. Negative views have also increased in China (from 42% to 62%), in Australia (from 52% to 60%) and in Brazil (from 51% to 60%). Interestingly, no more Iranians were negative about the US role in the world than Germans or French (each with 65% negative).
But there have also been some positive trends. In Russia, negative views are down from 63 percent to 52 percent and in Turkey, from 62 percent to 49 percent. In Poland, positive attitudes expressed by 52 percent in 2004 have risen to 62 percent.
With the addition of new countries to the current poll, especially African countries that see the US positively, the total number of countries giving the US a negative rating (18) is only modestly more than the number giving it a positive rating (13), with Saudi Arabia equally divided and the US not counted. On average across all these countries, views are evenly divided with 40 percent seeing the US role as positive and 41 percent negative.
China
Views of China have deteriorated sharply over the last year, but a plurality continues to view China positively in the world. Among the 20 countries polled both years, the number rating China mainly positively has dropped from 13 countries in 2004 to eight today, while those rating it negatively have risen from three countries to seven. On average, positive ratings of China have dropped 9 points.
What is most striking is the change that has occurred among European countries and Canada. While in 2004 four of the seven European countries polled plus Canada had a plurality with a positive view of China, today only one country--Spain--still has a plurality positive view. France's positive rating dropped from 49 percent to 31 percent while a majority of 53 percent now view China negatively. Italy's positive rating dropped from 42 percent to 22 percent, and a 55 percent majority now have a negative view. Positive views dropped in Great Britain (46% to 40%) and Canada (49% to 36%), with pluralities now having a negative view. Views in Russia also worsened--positive views dropping from a plurality positive of 42 percent to a divided 32 percent positive, 33 percent negative. Finland--polled for the first time--also came in 54 percent negative.
Negative shifts also occurred in Asia, most notably in South Korea. In 2004 South Koreans had been divided on China (49% positive, 47% negative), while currently a 58 percent majority views China negatively. Drops in positive ratings have also occurred in India (66% to 44%), the Philippines (70% to 54%), Australia (56% to 43%) and Indonesia (68% to 60%), but in all of these cases a plurality or majority are still positive.
Steven Kull comments, "Recent stories of tightening of state controls appear to have hurt China's image in the world."
Nonetheless, on balance, China still has considerably more countries holding a positive than a negative view of it. Of the 33 countries polled this year, 20 have a positive view (12 majorities, 8 pluralities) and only 10 have a negative view (5 pluralities and 5 majorities). On average 45 percent gave China a positive rating and 27 percent a negative rating.
Positive views are particularly widespread in Africa--especially Senegal (73% positive), Nigeria (68%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (59%), Kenya (59%) and Tanzania (53%). Majority positive views were also found among a number of Muslim countries--Iran (66%), Afghanistan (58%), Iraq (55%), Saudi Arabia (54%), and Indonesia (60%). Positive majorities were also found in Brazil (57%) and the Philippines (54%).
Russia
Overall evaluations of Russia have moved in a negative direction over the last year, presumably in response to the Putin government tightening of government controls. Among the 20 nations polled both years, positive views (already a minority position) slipped on average 8 points while negative views have held steady.
While in 2004 European views toward Russia already leaned negatively, several European countries have become even more negative. In Britain, positive ratings dropped from 38 percent to 27 percent and negative ratings rose from 46 percent to 50 percent so that now negative ratings outweigh the positive by almost two to one. In France positive ratings dropped from 30 percent to 21 percent and negative ratings rose from 57 percent to 62 percent. In Italy, positive ratings dropped from 38 percent to 22 percent. Among Germans, though, their strongly negative attitudes have abated a bit from 57 percent to 45 percent, but positive ratings remain low at 27 percent. It should be noted, however, that polling was completed before this winter's interruptions of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine.
Asians' assessment of Russia's influence in the world also shows a downward trend. While in 2004 Filipinos were one of the few nations that leaned positively in their views toward Russia (49% to 39%) positive ratings have dropped 28 points and a 52 percent majority now views Russia negatively. India was one of Russia's major boosters in 2004 with 67 percent rating it positively, but this number has slipped 24 points to 43 percent, though it still represents a plurality favorable. Similarly, in China the 2004 majority of 64 percent rating Russia positively has dropped 8 points to 56 percent. Indonesians have shifted from being evenly divided on Russia, to being a clear plurality of 44 percent negative with 28 percent positive.
Among all 33 countries polled the balance is 13 countries leaning positively (2 majorities, 11 pluralities), 16 countries negatively (4 majorities, 12 pluralities) and one country divided. On average, 30 percent give a positive rating, 33 percent a negative rating and a substantial 37 percent do not answer either way.
These averages are a bit better than for 2004 as newly-polled countries in Africa and the Arab world tend to lean positively. In Africa, Nigeria is the most positive with 55 percent giving a positive rating, while all the other African countries have a plurality positive except South Africa, which is divided. A modest plurality also rates Russia positively in the Arab world--Iraq (35% to 31%), Saudi Arabia (28% to 21%).
Europeans are predominantly negative, led by France (62%), Poland (56%), and Finland (65%), though Spain is the one exception, with a divided response.
Pluralities lean negatively in North and South America. However, the US only leans slightly negatively (34% positive to 40% negative).
France
There has also been a sharp downward movement in perceptions of France, possibly prompted by the urban riots there: in most countries polling was conducted either during or after the rioting. Among the 20 countries polled in 2004 as well as 2005 on average there has been an 11-point drop in the perception that France is having a positive influence. Most notable were South Africa (from 69% to 31%), Canada (from 68% to 45%), and the Philippines (68% to 44%); also France's European neighbors: Germany (77% to 58%), Italy (73% to 50%), and Great Britain (53% to 35%). A plurality of Britons (47%) now sees France as having a negative influence in the world.
Nonetheless France's ratings are still largely positive. Among the countries polled (excluding France), 28 have a positive view of its influence with 13 majorities and 15 pluralities. Especially positive are South Korea (74%), Spain (67%), China (64%), and Brazil (60%), and several African countries: Senegal (72%), Nigeria (62%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (57%) and Tanzania (57%). Only one country has a majority saying that France is having a negative influence--Iran with 58 percent, presumably related to the pressure France is exerting on Iran over its nuclear program. The US has continued to have a plurality with a negative view (48%) and has been joined this year by Great Britain (47%) and Turkey (40%).
Japan received very high ratings. Of the 33 countries polled, a remarkable 31 gave a positive rating and 21 of these were a majority. On average 55 percent gave a positive rating and 18 percent a negative one. Japan was not rated in the 2004 BBC World Service poll.
The two exceptions were China and South Korea, where 71 and 54 percent, respectively, said that Japan is having a negative influence. Otherwise the only countries to have more than 30 percent with a negative rating for Japan were France (36%) and Iran (33%), but both of these were still predominantly positive (France 47% positive, Iran 57%).
Interestingly some of the most positive countries are in Japan's region of the world. An extraordinary 85 percent of Indonesians and 79 percent of Filipinos give Japan good grades. Australians are also quite positive (60%).
Europeans are all quite positive, including Great Britain (57%), Germany (54%) and especially Spain (69%). France and Italy are more low key (47% and 48% positive, respectively). Also quite positive are Americans (66%) and Canadians (62%).
Europe
Views of Europe as a whole are very positive, although positive views are more subdued than they were a year ago. Of 33 countries polled, not a single one had a predominantly negative view of Europe and in 23 there were majorities that were positive (though 7 of these were European countries). Overall, on average 58 percent have a positive view of Europe's influence and just 14 percent a negative view. Excluding the European countries, the average is 53 percent positive and 15 percent negative.
At the same time, looking at 14 non-European countries that were polled in both years there has been a downward movement in positive ratings averaging 8 points. The biggest changes in views have been downward movements in Turkey (dropping from 54% positive to 31% positive), South Africa (from 76% to 45% positive), China (77% to 63%), the Philippines (76% to 62%), Australia (74% to 61%), Argentina (56% to 48%), Canada (79% to 66%), the US (67% to 60%) and Indonesia (71% to 59%). However, upward movements were recorded among South Koreans (71% to 80% positive) and Indians, whose views shifted from divided (35% positive, 33% negative) to a plurality positive (41% positive, 12% negative).
Views among Europeans have also slipped. Positive views of Europe have eroded in Italy (down 22 points), Britain (down 14 points), France (down 14 points), and Germany (down 7 points). In Poland, though positive views are up six points.
Britain
Views of Britain were found to be quite positive, slipping only slightly from a year ago primarily due to dips in positive feelings among South Africans and Filipinos. Positive views of Britain plummeted in South Africa from 67 percent in 2004 to 41 percent, and in the Philippines from 57 percent to 39 percent.
Among all countries polled this year, 26 have a positive view of Britain's influence--11 a majority and 15 a plurality. Just five have a negative view (3 majorities, 2 pluralities). On average 47 percent have a positive view of Britain and 25 percent a negative view.
The most negative countries are Muslim countries--Iran (66% negative), Iraq (57%) and Turkey (41% negative, 17% positive). However, Indonesia is positive (53%) as is Afghanistan (47%) and especially Nigeria (75%). Saudi Arabia is divided.
Two Latin American countries are negative--Argentina (51%) and Mexico (36% negative, 15% positive). But Brazil leans positively (49% to 29%).
All other countries are positive on Britain's role. Especially positive are the US (71%), Poland (72%), South Korea (75%), Ghana (67%) and Nigeria (75%).
India
Though India's global profile has grown significantly over the last year, it fails to elicit strong feelings. On average 35 percent give it a positive rating, 25 percent give it a negative rating and 41 percent do not answer one way or another. Many more countries (22) give it a net positive rating than a negative rating (6), but nearly all of these are plurality positions.
The exceptions are two Muslim countries with positive views: Iran (71% positive) and Afghanistan (59% positive). The only country with widespread negative views is the Philippines (57% negative). Notably, India's small neighbor Sri Lanka has a mere 4 percent reporting negative views and a robust 49 percent expressing a positive one.
Europeans are divided about India. At the positive end of the spectrum is Great Britain (49% positive, 30% negative) and Russia (47% positive, 10% negative), while at the other end are France and Finland--both being 27 percent positive and 44 percent negative.
The US leans slightly positively (39% positive, 35% negative).
Interestingly, Indians themselves are the most tepid or modest in their self-estimates. While in most countries a large majority give their country a positive rating, among Indians only 47 percent give India a positive rating, but only 10 percent give it a negative rating.
January 31, 2006
Poll of Iraqis: Public Wants Timetable for US Withdrawal, but Thinks US Plans Permanent Bases in Iraq
Half of Iraqis Approve of Attacks on US Forces, Including 9 Out of 10 Sunnis
Full Report
Questionnaire/Methodology
A new poll of the Iraqi public finds that a large majority of Iraqis think the US plans to maintain bases in Iraq permanently, even if the newly elected government asks the US to leave. A large majority favors setting a timeline for the withdrawal of US forces, though this majority divides over whether the timeline should be over a period of six months or two years. Nearly half of Iraqis approve of attacks on US-led forces—including nine out of 10 Sunnis. Most Iraqis believe that many aspects of their lives will improve once the US-led forces leave, but are nonetheless uncertain that Iraqi security forces are ready to stand on their own.
The poll was conducted for WorldPublicOpinion.org by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland and was fielded by KA Research Limited/D3 Systems, Inc. Polling was conducted January 2-5 with a nationwide sample of 1,150, which included an oversample of 150 Arab Sunnis (hereafter simply called Sunnis).
Asked whether “the US government plans to have permanent military bases in Iraq or to remove all its military forces once Iraq is stabilized,” 80% overall assume that the US plans to remain permanently, including 79% of Shia, 92% of Sunnis and 67% of Kurds. Only small minorities believe that the US plans “to remove all its military forces once Iraq is stabilized” (overall 18%, Shia 21%, Sunni 7%, Kurds 28%).
Iraqis of all ethnic groups also agree that the US is unlikely to take direction from the Iraqi government. Asked what they think the US would do if the new government were to ask the US to withdraw its forces within six months, 76% overall assume that the US would refuse to do so (Shia 67%, Sunni 94%, Kurds 77%).
Support for Timetable
Asked what they would like the newly elected Iraqi government to ask the US-led forces to do, 70% of Iraqis favor setting a timeline for the withdrawal of US forces. This number divides evenly between 35% who favor a short time frame of “within six months” and 35% who favor a gradual reduction over two years. Just 29% say it should “only reduce US-led forces as the security situation improves in Iraq.”
There are, however, variations along ethnic lines. Sunnis are the most unified, with 83% wanting US forces to leave within 6 months. Seventy percent of Shia agree on having a timeline, but divide between 22% who favor withdrawal in six months and 49% who favor two years. Among the Kurds, on the other hand, a majority of 57% favor reducing US-led forces only when the situation improves.
Even larger majorities, including a majority of Kurds, indicate a readiness to follow the government’s lead should it choose to pursue a timetable. Asked if it was a good idea for Iraqi leaders to have agreed at the Arab League conference that there should be a timetable for the withdrawal of US-led forces from Iraq, 87% say that it was, including 64% of Kurds, 94% of Sunnis and 90% of Shia.
Despite the strong support for a timeline, there are differing expectations as to what the new government will in fact do. Overall, 61% assume that the newly elected government will propose a timeline, with 17% assuming that it will be within six months and 44% over two years. However, there are sharp differences between the ethnic groups. While 76% of Shia assume that the new government will ask for withdrawal in six months (24%) or two years (52%), a majority of Kurds (57%) and Sunnis (54%) assume that the new government will ask US forces to withdraw only as the security situation improves.
A November 2005 poll of Iraqis conducted by the Oxford Research Institute for a consortium of media outlets including BBC, ABC News, NHK and others also found unhappiness with the presence of US troops. Sixty-five percent said they opposed “the presence of coalition forces in Iraq.” However, it was not asked specifically whether they wanted them to leave and when.
Support for Attacks
A substantial portion of Iraqis support attacks on US led-forces, but not attacks on Iraqi government security forces or Iraqi civilians. Ethnic groups vary sharply on these questions.
Overall, 47% say they approve of “attacks on US-led forces” (23% strongly). There are huge differences between ethnic groups. An extraordinary 88% of Sunnis approve, with 77% approving strongly. Forty-one percent of Shia approve as well, but just 9% strongly. Even 16% of Kurds approve (8% strongly).
Naturally the question arises why it is that only 35% want US troops to withdraw within six months while 47% approve of attacks on US-led forces. Interestingly, 41% of those who support attacks do not favor a near-term withdrawal. One possible explanation is that the attacks are not prompted by a desire to bring about an immediate withdrawal, but to put pressure on the US so that it will eventually leave. Indeed, among those who approve of such attacks, 90% believe that the US plans to have bases in Iraq permanently and 87% assume that the US would refuse to leave even if asked to by the new Iraqi government.
PIPA Director Steven Kull comments, “It appears that support for attacks on US-led forces may not always be prompted by a desire for the US to leave Iraq immediately but rather to put pressure on the US to leave eventually—something most Iraqis perceive the US as having no intention of doing.”
Support for other types of attacks is sharply lower. An overwhelming 93% oppose attacks on Iraqi government security forces (66% strongly). This is true of all ethnic groups, including 76% of Sunnis, 97% of Shia and 99% of Kurds. Thus, it appears that support for attacks on US-led forces is truly aimed at US-led forces, not an indirect attempt to undermine the new Iraqi government.
Support for attacks on Iraqi civilians is nearly nonexistent. Only 1% approve, while 95% disapprove strongly.
Sources of Urgency for Withdrawal
The major source of urgency for withdrawal is the feeling, especially among Sunnis, that it is offensive for their country to be occupied. A secondary reason is that US forces attract more attacks and make the violence worse.
The 35% of respondents who took the position in favor of the near-term exit of US forces from Iraq (six months) were asked: “Which of the following reasons for withdrawing US-led forces is the most important to you?” and given four options. The most commonly selected answer is: “It is offensive to me to have foreign forces in my country.” This was selected by 20% (of the total sample) overall, 52% of Sunnis, 11% of Shia and 7% of Kurds. The second most common answer is: “The presence of US forces attracts more violent attacks and makes things worse,” which was selected by 11% overall, 26% of Sunnis, 6% of Shia and 4% of Kurds. Far fewer chose the other two options: “It is no longer necessary to have US-led forces in Iraq: Iraq can take care of itself” (2%), and “I do not like the way US forces have treated Iraqi civilians” (2%).
Effects of US Withdrawal
Iraqis believe that many aspects of their lives would improve were US-led forces to leave Iraq. Sunnis and Shia feel this way regarding every aspect asked about, while the Kurds have more mixed views. However, the majority is still not sure that Iraqi security forces are ready for US-led forces to leave within a short-term time frame.
Respondents were asked what would happen in a variety of areas if US-led forces were to withdraw from Iraq in the next six months. Majorities of Iraqis express confidence that in many dimensions related to security, things would improve. Sixty-seven percent say that “day to day security for ordinary Iraqis” would increase, a consensus position among all ethnic groups—83% of Sunnis, 61% of Shia and 57% of Kurds. On other points, Sunnis and Shia agree, but the Kurds diverge. Overall, 64% believe that violent attacks would decrease, including a majority of Sunnis (86%) and Shia (66%), but 78% of Kurds think they will increase. Overall, 61% think that the amount of interethnic violence will decrease, including a majority of Sunnis (81%) and Shia (64%), but a majority of Kurds (68%) think it will increase. Similarly, 56% overall agree that the presence of foreign fighters in Iraq will decrease if US-led forces withdraw (Sunnis 74%, Shia 64%), but 74% of Kurds think they will increase.
Interestingly, there is a fair amount of consensus that if US-led troops were to withdraw, there would be substantial improvement in the performance of the Iraqi state. Overall, 73% think there will be an increase in the willingness of factions to cooperate in Parliament, including majorities of Kurds (62%), Sunnis (87%) and Shia (68%). Sixty-seven percent assume there will be an increase in the availability of public services such as electricity, schools and sanitation (Sunni 83%, Shia 63%, Kurds 54%). Sixty-four percent assume crime will go down (Sunnis 88%, Shia 66%), but here again the Kurds diverge, with 77% assuming crime will increase.
Naturally the question arises, “Why do only 35% favor the US withdrawing within six months if there would be so many assumed benefits?” The answer may lie in the response to another question that asked whether in six months Iraqi security forces will be “strong enough to deal with the security challenges Iraq will face” or will still “need the help of military forces from other countries.” Overall, 59% feel that Iraqi security forces will not be strong enough, including 55% of Shia, 58% of Sunnis and 73% of Kurds. Thus, the presence of US troops may be perceived as an unwelcome presence that produces many undesirable side effects, but is still necessary for a period.
Majority of Iraqis Endorse Election and Show Optimism
But Sunnis Strongly Reject Election And Regret Overthrow of Saddam
Full Report
Questionnaire/Methodology
The majority of Iraqis overall view the recent parliamentary elections as valid, are optimistic that their country is going in the right direction and feel that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein has been worth the costs. Sunnis, on the other hand, overwhelmingly reject the validity of the elections, see the country going in the wrong direction and regret the overthrow of Saddam. This pervasive pessimism challenges hopes that the alienated Sunni Arab minority, which boycotted Iraq’s first post-Saddam elections a year ago, would feel empowered by participating in last month’s elections.
The poll was conducted for WorldPublicOpinion.org by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland and was fielded by KA Research Limited/D3 Systems, Inc. Polling was conducted January 2-5 with a nationwide sample of 1,150, which included an oversample of 150 Arab Sunnis (hereafter simply called Sunnis).
Overall, two out of three Iraqis (66%) believe that the recent parliamentary elections were free and fair. Approximately the same number (68%) say “that the government to be established by the newly elected Parliament will … be the legitimate representative of the Iraqi people.”
Even larger majorities feel this way among the Shia and Kurds. Eighty-nine percent of Shia and 77% of Kurds say the elections were free and fair, while 90% of Shia and 81% of Kurds say the new government will be the legitimate representative of the Iraqi people.
However, despite significant participation by Iraq’s Sunnis in the December 15 parliamentary elections, an overwhelming majority rejects the validity of these elections. An extraordinary 94% of Sunnis say the elections were not free and fair. Ninety-two percent say that the new government resulting from the elections will not be the legitimate representative of the Iraqi people.
Sunni objections are not, however, predicated on the position that they have a unique right to dominate the government. Sunnis as well as other groups polled are nearly unanimous in supporting the position that “all groups should participate in the political process” (overall 97%, Sunnis 98%, Shia 97%, Kurds 93%).
Overall, 64% of Iraqis say that Iraq is heading in the right direction, while just 36% say it is heading in the wrong direction. This represents a sharp upward movement from when the International Republican Institute asked this question in November 2005 and just 49% said that Iraq was headed in the right direction and 36% said the wrong direction. The only other time that IRI has found such a high number expressing such optimism was in April 2005—also just after an election—when 67% said the country was headed in the right direction and 20% the wrong direction.
Among the Shia and Kurds optimism is even higher. Seventy-six percent of Kurds and 84% of Shia say they think the country is headed in the right direction.
Sunnis, though, are overwhelmingly pessimistic. A remarkable 93% say the country is headed in the wrong direction. (Trendline data by ethnic group was not released by IRI.)
Iraqis overall have a positive view of the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Asked, “Thinking about any hardships you might have suffered since the US-Britain invasion, do you personally think that ousting Saddam Hussein was worth it or not?” 77% say it was worth it, while 22% say it was not.
Gallup asked the same question in April 2004. At that time, 61% said that it was worth it and 28% said that it was not.
However, here again, the ethnic divisions are very sharp. Ninety-eight percent of Shia and 91% of Kurds say the hardships were worth it, while 83% of Sunnis say they were not.
Since Sunnis largely reject the election outcome and the new government that will be formed, and harbor continued resentment about Saddam’s overthrow, the challenge is as strong as ever to make the Sunnis feel they are included in Iraq’s political process. 
Iraqi Public Favors International Assistance
Full Report
Questionnaire/Methodology
Though many Iraqis are unhappy with the presence of US-led forces, most express strong support for various forms of international assistance, including the presence of foreign security forces, UN (rather than US) leadership on reconstruction, an international conference of global and regional players to address Iraq's needs, engagement by the Arab League and a variety of forms of nonmilitary US assistance. In some cases, international forms of assistance are even endorsed by Sunnis, who tend to strongly oppose all US-led efforts in Iraq.
The poll was conducted for WorldPublicOpinion.org by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland and was fielded by KA Research Limited/D3 Systems, Inc. Polling was conducted January 2-5 with a nationwide sample of 1,150, which included an oversample of 150 Arab Sunnis (hereafter simply called Sunnis).
A majority of Iraqis (59%) feel that in six months it will be necessary for Iraq to have "military forces from other countries." Just 39% say that "six months from now Iraqi security forces will be strong enough to deal with the security challenges Iraq will face." Not surprisingly, 55% of Shia and 73% of Kurds endorse the need for foreign forces.
What is surprising is that 59% of Sunnis also endorse the need for "military force from other countries" six months from now. In the case of the Sunnis, this support for help from military forces from unspecified "other countries" is in sharp contrast to attitudes about the presence of "US-led forces." An overwhelming 83% of Sunnis favor the withdrawal of "US-led forces" within six months.
Those who say Iraq still needs the help of foreign forces were also asked how much longer such forces would be needed. Twenty-one percent (of the whole sample) say one year, 26% two years and 12% three years or more. Kurds' estimates of how much longer foreign forces would be needed are a bit longer (33% three years or more, 31% two years), while Sunni and Shia estimates are similar.
A poll of Iraqis conducted in Baghdad governorate by Gallup in September 2003 also found strong support for an international military presence. Sixty-four percent said they would favor "installing an international peacekeeping force in Iraq." Only 32% were opposed.
UN Leadership
Iraqis also express support for the UN, not the US, to take the lead in the economic reconstruction of Iraq. Overall, 59% express such a preference, with just 21% favoring the US taking the lead. Kurds have the highest percentage favoring the US taking the lead (43%), but the majority (53%) of Kurds favor the UN. Shia express the strongest support for the UN (64%). Only 22% of Shia support the US taking the lead in reconstruction.
Sunni support for the US taking the lead is almost nonexistent (4%). But approximately half of Sunnis (48%) express support for the UN, while 46% says they would prefer to have neither involved.
When asked whether the UN is having a positive or negative influence in Iraq now, this produces a divided response, with 38% saying mostly positive and 38% saying mostly negative. Shia are mixed, with 39% saying the UN is having a mostly positive influence and 38% saying it is having a mostly negative influence. Given their strong desire for a larger UN role, this suggests that there is unhappiness with the UN for not taking a more active role in Iraq. Among those who say the UN is playing a mostly negative role in Iraq, 59% prefer the UN to take the lead in economic reconstruction.
Kurds are the most satisfied with the UN, with 60% saying it is having a mostly positive influence on the situation in the country. Sunnis are the least satisfied with the UN's influence on the situation in Iraq--57% say it is mostly negative.
International Conference
Respondents were asked about the prospect of holding a major conference where leaders from the US, Europe, the UN and various Arab countries would meet with leaders of the new Iraqi government to coordinate efforts to help Iraq achieve greater stability and economic growth. Overall nearly two-thirds of Iraqis--64%--support the idea, including 72% of Kurds and 69% of Shia.
Sunnis are decidedly less enthusiastic. Still, 40% favor the idea, while 57% say it is best for other countries to stay out of Iraq's affairs.
This majority openness to some forms of international involvement recalls a Gallup finding in its Baghdad poll of September 2003. Respondents were told: "Some people have called for internationalizing the reconstruction effort by having nations in addition to the US and Britain help in the reconstruction of Iraq." Eighty-three percent favored this idea (55% strongly).
US Nonmilitary Involvement
Two-thirds of Iraqis approve of US involvement in nonmilitary activities--including training Iraqi security forces, developing Iraq's oil industry, building government institutions, mediating between ethnic groups, assisting with infrastructure and economic development and helping organize local communities. Yet a majority or plurality says the US is doing a poor job in each of these areas.
Of the seven nonmilitary activities Iraqis were asked about, approval is highest for training Iraqi security forces (77% overall) and lowest for US efforts to help mediate between ethnic groups (65% overall).
Sunnis, however, disapprove of US involvement in these activities by a large majority. Sunnis are the only group that disagrees in principle with US involvement in nonmilitary activities. Between 74% and 81% percent of Sunnis disapprove of US involvement in each of these activities (19-26% approve), while 76% to 96% percent of Kurds and Shia approve.
However, even among Kurds and Shia most feel the US is doing a poor job. The only case in which a majority of any group says the US is doing a good job is Kurdish approval of US training of Iraqi security forces--54% of Kurds say the US is doing a good job in this area.
The low level of approval for US performance was also found recently in a more general question in a November 2005 poll conducted by the Oxford Research Institute for a consortium of media outlets including BBC, ABC News, NHK and others. Fifty-nine percent thought "the United States and other coalition forces" have done a bad job (40% very bad job) in "the way [they] have carried out their responsibilities in Iraq." Only 36% said the US-led coalition has done a good job.
In the current poll, those who disapprove of US involvement in any of these nonmilitary activities were asked whether it would make any difference in their opinion about US involvement if the US were to agree to a timetable for withdrawing forces. A significant number say it would. Ten percent of Kurds and 9% of Shia say it would make them more supportive. Most significantly, 37% of Sunnis say it would make them more likely to approve. Combined with the 19-26% of Sunnis who support various forms of nonmilitary US involvement, this could lift Sunni support to a solid majority.
Role of Neighboring Muslim Countries
A large majority of Iraqis approve of recent efforts by the Arab League to facilitate reconciliation in Iraq. However, more broadly Iraqis seem to be somewhat unenthusiastic about the Arab League and are largely negative about the role of Iran and Syria.
Asked how they feel about recent efforts of the Arab League to help Iraqi leaders achieve national reconciliation, 73% say they approve. The number includes majority support from every group (74% of Sunnis, 73% of Shia, 67% of Kurds).
Positive opinions about the Arab League's efforts to assist with Iraq's reconciliation are likely connected to what was seen as a concrete outcome of the Arab League's summit on Iraq in November--a statement that there should be a timetable for the withdrawal of US-led forces from Iraq, terrorism should be rejected and all groups should participate in the political process.
Large majorities of Iraqis from all ethnic groups concur that it was a good idea for Iraqi leaders to agree to each of these points:
• Rejection of terrorism--99% overall (100% of Shia, 98% of Sunnis, 96% of Kurds)
• All groups should participate in the political process--97% overall (98% of Sunnis, 97% of Shia, 93% of Kurds)
• A timetable for withdrawal of US-led forces--87% overall (94% of Sunnis, 90% of Shia, 64% of Kurds).
Of the 28% of Kurds who say that having such a timetable is a bad idea, 90% say it is too soon to talk about withdrawing US-led forces from Iraq.
Yet when asked about the influence of the Arab League on the situation in Iraq in general, only 30% say it was mostly positive. Opinions are divided in every group on the Arab League's influence. Fifty percent of Sunnis give a neutral answer, that the Arab League had neither a positive nor negative effect, while Shia and Kurds are divided among those who feel it had a negative effect, those who feel it had a positive effect and those who feel it had neither or no effect.
This apparent contradiction between support for Arab League recent efforts on reconciliation and skepticism about the effect of the league's influence in Iraq may be a reaction that this effort is too little, too late. Among those who view the Arab League as mostly negative, 68% still support the organization's recent efforts regarding Iraq. Negative attitudes about the Arab League's influence in Iraq may also indicate longstanding suspicion among Iraqi Shia and Kurds about the organization. The Arab League, whose member states are predominantly Sunni Arabs, did not speak out against Saddam Hussein's oppression of Shia and Kurds during his long domination of Iraq.
Majorities of Iraqis have negative views about the influence of neighboring Muslim countries on Iraq, although differences are evident by ethnic group depending on whether it is Iran or Syria that is being considered.
A slight majority of Iraqis--52%--believe Iran is having a mostly negative influence on Iraq, but the number reaches 93% among Sunni Arabs, who belong to a different branch of Islam than the vast majority of Iranians. Among Iraq's Shia, who share the same religious tradition as most Iranians, a plurality (43%) says Iran is having a mostly positive influence on Iraq, yet nearly a third of Iraqi Shia (30%) say Iran is having a mostly negative influence. A majority of Kurds (63%), who mainly belong to the Sunni branch of Islam, say Iran is having a mostly negative influence on Iraq.
A majority of Iraqis, 61%, believe Syria is also having a mostly negative effect on Iraq. Syria, a mostly Sunni Arab country, has long been ruled by the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Islam. Iraqi Shia are the most vociferous group in calling influence from Damascus mostly negative (80%). A slight majority of Kurds (55%) say Syria is having a mostly negative influence, while slight majorities of Sunnis (54%) say Syria is having neither a mostly positive nor mostly negative effect, or no effect.
January 30, 2006
WPO Poll: Afghan Public Overwhelmingly Rejects al-Qaeda, Taliban
Strongly Supports US and International Presence
Believes Pakistan Is Allowing Taliban to Operate There
A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of the Afghan public finds an overwhelming majority opposes al-Qaeda and the Taliban, endorses the overthrow of the Taliban and approves of the US military presence in Afghanistan.
Eighty-one percent of Afghans said they think that al-Qaeda is having a negative influence in the world with just 6% saying that it is having a positive influence. An even higher percentage—90%—said they have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden, with 75% saying they have a very unfavorable view. Just 5% said they have a favorable view (2% very favorable). These levels were slightly lower in the country’s war zone, the eastern and south-central part of the country: three in five (60%) in those areas had a very unfavorable view of bin Laden.
The poll was developed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes and fielded by ACSOR/D3 Systems, Inc. from November 27 to December 4, 2005, with a sample of 2,089 Afghan adults.
The fundamentalist Taliban that governed Afghanistan from 1996 until it was overthrown with the help of US forces in October 2001 received equally poor 
ratings. Eighty-eight percent said they have an unfavorable view of the Taliban (62% very unfavorable). Only 8% said they have a favorable view. In the war zone, a lesser 47% described their view of the Taliban as “very unfavorable,” but 81% were unfavorable nonetheless.
Perhaps most telling, 82% said that overthrowing the Taliban government was a good thing for Afghanistan, with just 11% saying it was a bad thing. In the war zone, 71% endorsed the Taliban’s overthrow while 16% saw it as a bad thing; in the north, 18% saw it as a bad thing.
These views were held by large majorities of all ethnic groups, including the large Pashtun and Tajik groups and the smaller Uzbek and Hazara groups. The
Pashtuns were less emphatic in their rejection of the Taliban, with 51% expressing a very unfavorable view of the Taliban as compared to 66-79% for the other groups.
Equally large percentages endorse the US military presence in Afghanistan. Eighty-three percent said they have a favorable view of “the US military forces in our country” (39% very favorable). Just 17% have an unfavorable view.
International agencies also get a warm endorsement. An overwhelming 93% gave the United Nations favorable ratings (57% very favorable). International agencies providing aid for reconstruction were rated as effective by 79%, with 38% saying they are very effective.
Steven Kull, director of PIPA and principal investigator of the study comments, “It is remarkable that the country that was for years subjected to the totalitarian fundamentalism of the Taliban and hosted the al Qaeda as it planned 9-11, is now overwhelmingly rejecting them and welcoming the presence of the US and international agencies. Clearly this is a positive portent for the struggle against extreme fundamentalism.”
Afghans were also asked whether they approve or disapprove of US military forces “conducting operations to capture or kill al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan.” This has been controversial, as Afghan civilians have at times been killed or wounded in these efforts. Nonetheless, overall 79% said they approve, with just 13% disapproving. In the east and south-central regions where most US operations take place, approval was 10 points lower at 69%, while one in five (20%) said they disapproved.
This general support for US military presence and for the overthrow of the Taliban government is also reflected in some of the most positive ratings of the United States found in the world. Eighty-one percent said that they have a favorable view of the US (40% very favorable), with just 16% giving an unfavorable rating. In the war zone, one in four (26%) had an unfavorable view of the US, but 73% were favorable.
Views of Pakistan
Afghans do not, however, feel positively about Pakistan in general and specifically believe that, contrary to its claims, it is not pursuing the Taliban. Asked, “Do you think the Pakistan government is allowing the Taliban to operate in Pakistan, or is seriously trying to stop the Taliban from operating in Pakistan?” only 21% said they thought that Pakistan is seriously trying to stop the Taliban from operating in Pakistan, while two out of three (66%) said they believe the government is allowing the Taliban to operate in Pakistan.
This majority is even greater in the war zone, where a larger number have firsthand opportunities to observe conditions. In the eastern and south-central regions, 73% say Pakistan is allowing the Taliban to operate on Pakistani soil; only 18% see Pakistan as making serious efforts against the Taliban.
Asked their general opinion of Pakistan, 63% of Afghans said they have an unfavorable view (70% in the war zone). Just 13% said they have a favorable view.
General Situation in Country
Afghans express remarkably positive attitudes about how things are going in their country. It should, of course, be noted that over the last several decades, Afghanistan has suffered a tremendous amount of conflict, instability and repression such that their evaluations are likely influenced by comparisons to past conditions.
Asked whether their country is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction, 83% of Afghans said it is heading in the right direction. Just 11% said it is heading in the wrong direction.
Most striking, a majority rate the security situation where they are living positively, though there are important regional differences. Seventy percent said their own security situation was either excellent (21%) or good (49%). Just 30% rated it fair (25%) or poor (5%). Also in the war zone, a lesser 53% said their own security was excellent (21%) or good (32%), while 47% said it was fair (35%) or poor (12%).
The central government is viewed very positively. When a list of different authorities was read to respondents, a remarkable 55% called the central Afghan government “very effective” and another 36% said it is somewhat effective. However, given that Afghanistan remains a weak state with very limited reach over the country as a whole, it may be that Afghans were expressing their positive attitudes about the government, more than assessing its performance. President Hamid Karzai received an extraordinarily high approval rating, with 93% saying they have a favorable view of him (68% “very favorable”). There were no significant ethnic or regional variations on these two questions, which may suggest the strength of public hopes for national unity in the future.
Local leaders get ratings that are distinctly more muted, though still positive. Only 21% said they viewed local leaders as very effective, though another 43% called them somewhat effective (total: 64% effective). Thirty-two percent said they were either not very effective (20%) or not at all effective (12%). Tajiks were not quite as satisfied, with 54% rating their local leaders as very or somewhat effective. Those in the war zone were more likely to praise local leaders, with 76% calling them very (25%) or somewhat (51%) effective.
Afghans also seem to be accepting of having women in the Afghan Parliament. Respondents were asked, “As you may know, some seats in Parliament are reserved for women representatives. Do you think this is a good idea or not a good idea?” A robust 82% said they think it is a good idea, with just 13% saying it is a bad idea. Among male respondents, 77% approved.
January 29, 2006
Afghans Favor Expanding Peacekeeping Operation
Approve Stopping Opium Production
A large majority of Afghans approve of the recent expansion of the NATO peacekeeping force beyond the capital Kabul and would like to see it expanded even further, according to a new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll conducted November 27 to December 4, 2005, with 2089 Afghan adults. The poll was developed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes and fielded by ACSOR/D3 Systems, Inc.
Since international forces occupied Afghanistan in 2001 a controversy has swirled around the fact that international peacekeeping forces, known as ISAF, have been limited until recently to the capital city Kabul. Because Afghanistan’s security forces are not fully developed, this left the majority of Afghanistan under the domination of local warlords. While many have called for expanding the peacekeeping operation (manned largely by NATO forces, run by a NATO command since 2003) beyond Kabul, it has never been known how the Afghan people would respond to such a prospect. While the increased security might prove attractive, Afghans might also see it as compromising their sovereignty or as threatening the positions of local commanders to whom they may feel loyalty. Recently the ISAF peacekeeping force was expanded, so that it now includes nine “provincial reconstruction teams” in northern and western towns, and is able to affect the security situation in about half of Afghanistan’s territory. ISAF plans further expansion into the south in 2006. (Source: http://www.nato.int/issues/afghanistan/evolution.htm)
The new WPO poll finds strong support for this new expansion of the peacekeeping operation. Asked, “As you may know, the NATO peacekeeping forces known as ISAF have recently expanded their presence beyond Kabul to several other areas. Do you approve or disapprove of this expansion?” just 18% opposed it while two out of three (66%) favored it.
There also appears to be fairly strong support for further expansion of the peacekeeping operation. Those who said that they were in favor of the recent expansion were asked whether they would favor expansion to more areas. Eighty-nine percent of those asked (58% of the total sample) said they would favor it.
An even larger percentage said that they perceive the ISAF peacekeeping force as effective. Eighty-two percent said they see it as very effective (46%) or somewhat effective (36%). Ten percent said they see it as not very effective and 5% not at all effective.
The only ethnic group to not show strong enthusiasm for expanding the role of ISAF was the Uzbeks. Only 48% approved of expanding ISAF beyond Kabul and only 42% even further. But their perception of the effectiveness of ISAF was nearly as high as the others (very effective 39%, somewhat 34%).
Regionally, there was less support in the north, where 53% approved and 30% disapproved of the recent expansion and 44% approved of further expansion.
Stopping Opium Production
Perhaps the most delicate aspect of international intervention is the effort to stop opium production. This is a highly intrusive form of intervention against an activity that provides a form of livelihood to significant numbers of Afghans, as well as stimulating the economy. Nonetheless, most Afghans say they support the international effort to stop it.
Respondents were asked whether they favor “international military forces’ efforts to stop the growing of opium poppies in Afghanistan.” A resounding 78% said that they approve, with just 15% disapproving. In the east and south-central regions, a lower 72% approved while 22% disapproved.