World Public Opinion

Iraq: The Separate Realities of Republicans and Democrats

The war with Iraq, now three years on, will surely be regarded by historians as one of the more unusual wars in history. The stated premise for going to war�Iraq�s weapons of mass destruction and support for al-Qaeda�was unfounded, a number of US government commissions have concluded. However, other government leaders have made statements that leave ambiguities on what was in fact the case. Not surprisingly, over the years a number of studies have found that there have been widespread differences among Americans, not only in their attitudes about the war, but also their perceptions of what were, in fact, the realities surrounding it, including the premises for going to war.

A new study by WorldPublicOpinion.org has found that, despite the passage of years, many of these divisions persist. A closer analysis also reveals that these divisions are closely aligned with party identification. Indeed it seems fair to say that in regard to the Iraq war, Republicans and Democrats are living in separate realities.

The poll of 851 Americans, fielded by Knowledge Networks March 1-6, found that:

--Though their numbers are declining, a majority of Republicans continue to believe that before the war, Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or a major program for developing them and do not think that most experts believe Iraq did not have WMDs. A growing majority of Democrats believe the opposite on both points.

--A majority of Republicans, though declining, maintains the belief that Iraq was providing substantial support to al-Qaeda and that clear evidence of this support has been found, in contrast to large majorities of Democrats who hold opposing beliefs. A slight majority of Republicans believe that most experts agree that Iraq was providing support to al-Qaeda. Only 1 in 4 Democrats holds this view, but only a minority (and a declining one) perceives that most experts agree that Iraq was not providing support.

--Large majorities of Republicans and Democrats agree that the Bush administration is saying that Iraq had WMD or a major program for developing them and that Iraq was providing substantial support to al-Qaeda.

--Majorities of Republicans and Democrats continue to agree that the US should not have gone to war with Iraq if the US had intelligence that Iraq did not have WMD and was not supporting al-Qaeda�though this is a declining majority for Republicans. However, Democrats believe that President Bush would still have gone to war even if he had intelligence that Iraq did not have WMD or links to al-Qaeda, that he knowingly acted on false assumptions, and that he misled the public to make the case for war. Republicans differ on all of these points. Consistent with their perceptions, a large majority of Democrats say that the war with Iraq was a war of choice, while a modest majority of Republicans say that it was a war of necessity.

--Republicans and Democrats differ in their perceptions of whether world public opinion approved of the US going to war. A large majority of Democrats believes that world public opinion was mostly opposed, while Republicans are divided on what was the case.

Iraq and WMD

Though their numbers are declining, a majority of Republicans continue to believe that before the war, Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or a major program for developing them and do not believe that most experts believe Iraq did not have WMDs. A growing majority of Democrats believe the opposite on both points.

Sixty percent of Republicans continue to believe that Iraq had WMD (41%) or a major program for developing them (19%), representing only a modest decrease from the 70 percent who held such beliefs in an October 2004 Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) poll. Among Democrats, just 23 percent share these views, while 78 percent believe that Iraq had only some limited WMD-related activities but not a program (50%) or no WMD activities at all (28%).

There has been a growing awareness in both parties that �experts mostly agree Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, though it may have had some programs for developing them.� However, this is still a minority position among Republicans: 43 percent�up from 26 percent in 2004.

Democrats have gone from 50 percent having this view in 2004 to 62 percent today. The majority of Republicans either believe that most experts agree that Iraq did have WMD (39%, down from 51%) or that views are evenly divided (18%).

Republicans and Democrats differ on whether United Nations inspectors were eventually proven correct when they concluded that there was no clear evidence that Iraq had a major program for developing WMD. Among Republicans, only 40 percent perceived that the UN inspectors were proven correct, with a majority (56%) believing that they were proven incorrect. Perceptions among Democrats were quite the opposite: a strong majority (73%) believes the UN inspectors were proven correct.

Iraq and al-Qaeda

A majority of Republicans, though declining, maintains the belief that Iraq was providing substantial support to al-Qaeda and that clear evidence of this support has been found, in contrast to large majorities of Democrats who hold opposing beliefs. A slight majority of Republicans believes that most experts agree that Iraq was providing support to al-Qaeda. Only 1 in 4 Democrats holds this view, but only a minority (and a declining one) perceives that experts most agree that Iraq was not providing support.

Sixty-three percent of Republicans believe that Iraq gave substantial support to al-Qaeda, down 8 percentage points from October 2004. The exact same number of Democrats�63 percent�believe, instead, that there were some minimal contacts between Iraq and al-Qaeda (45%) or that there was no connection at all (18%). This number is up slightly from 57 percent in 2004. Only 35 percent of Democrats believe that Iraq gave substantial support to al-Qaeda.

A majority of Republicans (62%) continue to believe that clear evidence has been found proving that Iraq was working closely with al-Qaeda, nearly the same percentage as in October 2004 (63%). Seventy-three percent of Democrats believe that such evidence has not been found, but, curiously, this is down from the 83 percent who held this position in October 2004.

A majority of Republicans (51%, down from 57% in October 2004) still believe that experts mostly agree that al-Qaeda was providing substantial support to Iraq, while only about 1 in 4 Democrats holds that view (27%, up from 23% in October 2004). Yet the number of Democrats who believe that most experts think Iraq was not providing substantial support to al-Qaeda is only 40 percent (down from 45% in 2004), while another 32 percent believe that experts� views are evenly divided on this question (up from 28% in 2004).

What the Bush Administration Now Says About Pre-War Iraq

In spite of sharp differences in their perceptions of pre-war Iraq, Republicans and Democrats largely agree on what the Bush administration is now saying about pre-war Iraq�both in terms of WMDs and support for al-Qaeda.

Among Republicans, 74 percent believe the Bush administration continues to maintain that Iraq had WMD (38%) or a major program for their development (36%). Similarly, 70 percent of Democrats perceive the Bush administration as saying that Iraq had WMD (40%) or a major WMD program (30%).

While this overall number remains unchanged from 2004, there has been a sharp drop in the percentages who perceive that the Bush administration is saying that Iraq had actual WMD�26 points among Republicans and 36 points among Democrats. In both cases, this been accompanied by a migration to the perception that the administration is saying Iraq did not have actual WMD but did have a major program for developing them (up 18% for Republicans and 19% for Democrats) but also to the position that the administration is saying that Iraq only had limited WMD-related activities (up 5% for Republicans and 16% for Democrats).

On the issue of al-Qaeda, 62 percent of Democrats perceive the Bush administration as saying Iraq had direct involvement in 9/11 (25%) or simply provided substantial support to al-Qaeda (37%). Among Republicans, this overall number is 72 percent, with a smaller number perceiving that the administration is saying that Iraq was directly involved in 9/11 (14%) and a larger number perceiving that the Bush administration is saying that Iraq simply gave substantial support to al-Qaeda (58%).

As compared to 2004, Republicans show significant change in these perceptions. Among Democrats, though, there has been a 10-point drop in the perception that the Bush administration is saying that Iraq was providing substantial support and an 8-point increase in the perception of the administration saying that there were only minor contacts.

The Decision to Go to War

Majorities of Republicans and Democrats continue to agree that the US should not have gone to war with Iraq if the US had intelligence that Iraq did not have WMD and was not supporting al-Qaeda�though this is a declining majority for Republicans. However, Democrats believe that President Bush would still have gone to war even if he had intelligence that Iraq did not have WMD or links to al-Qaeda, that he knowingly acted on false assumptions, and that he misled the public to make the case for war. Republicans differ on all of these points. Consistent with their perceptions, a large majority of Democrats say that the war with Iraq was a war of choice, while a modest majority of Republicans say that it was a war of necessity.

When asked �If, before the war, US intelligence services had concluded that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction and was not providing substantial support to al-Qaeda,� 53 percent of Republicans believe the US should not have gone to war, as do 87 percent of Democrats.

While this number is unchanged for Democrats, for Republicans it has declined from 60 percent in 2004. A growing number (36% to 43%) say that the US should have gone to war for other reasons. This shift may be related to the growing awareness that Iraq did not have WMD or links to al-Qaeda. Three-fourths of Republicans continue to believe that going to war with Iraq was the right decision, down only slightly from the 80 percent who held that view in October 2004. Thus it appears that continuing to support the war increasingly requires thinking that it was necessary for other reasons.

Republicans and Democrats differ sharply on the question of what President Bush would have done if �before the war, US intelligence services had told President Bush there was no reliable evidence that Iraq possessed or was building weapons of mass destruction or was providing substantial support to al-Qaeda.� A slim majority (51%) of Republicans believes that Bush would not have gone to war if intelligence had shown that Iraq did not possess WMD or support al-Qaeda�modestly down from the 58 percent who held this position in October 2004. Democrats, on the other hand, overwhelmingly believe that he would have gone to war for other reasons (87%, up from 81%). A growing minority of Republicans agree�47 percent, up from 37 percent.

A majority of Democrats now believes that the President knowingly acted on incorrect assumptions in going to war, while Republicans differ strongly. A solid majority of Democrats (59%, up from 41% in October 2004) hold the view that President Bush knowingly made the decision to go to war on the basis of incorrect assumptions, while only 9 percent of Republicans share this view. Rather, 90 percent of Republicans believe Bush acted on information that was correct (44%, up from 39%), or that was incorrect, but the President believed it was correct (46%, down from 54%).

Republicans and Democrats agree, however, that the intelligence Bush received did say that Iraq was supporting al-Qaeda. Republicans are more definite (92%) than Democrats (61%). Thus it appears that the dispute over whether Bush knowingly acted on false assumptions centers around the WMD issue.

Consistent with these views, Republicans and Democrats differ on whether the President misled the American public to make the case for war. Eighty-three percent of Republicans believe that Bush gave the country the most accurate information he had, exhibiting a clear trust of the administration that has not diminished since the start of the war, in spite of various developments regarding the prewar situation in Iraq. However, 8 in 10 Democrats believe that Bush deliberately misled people to make the case for war, an increase from 76 percent who held that view in October 2004.

Consistent with these differing views of pre-war conditions, a large majority of Democrats (88%) say that the war with Iraq was a war of choice, while a modest majority of Republicans (54%) say that it was a war of necessity.

World Public Opinion on the Iraq War

Republicans and Democrats differ in their perceptions of whether world public opinion approved of the US going to war. A large majority of Democrats believe that world public opinion was mostly opposed, while Republicans are divided on what was the case.

Respondents were asked about �how all the people in the world felt about the US going to war with Iraq in 2003.� Sixty-seven percent of Democrats say that the majority of people were opposed. Only 34 percent of Republicans agreed. Other Republicans were divided between the view that the majority was in favor (34%) and that the world public�s views were evenly balanced (30%).

Past PIPA polls asked the question in the present tense and responses were largely the same.
Curiously, as compared to October 2004, there has been a modest increase in Republicans� perceptions that a world majority favored the war (rising from 22% to 34%) and a decline in the number of Democrats who believe that the majority opposed it (from 76% to 67%). Though polls largely show widespread opposition to the war, it may be that as the large-scale demonstrations against the war move further into the past, the impression of opposition may have faded a bit.

French Public Stands Behind Protests Against New Labor Law

By Angela Stephens

With French young people in the streets protesting a new law that will allow employers to fire workers under age 26 without review, French public opinion polls indicate that the French public is largely standing behind the protestors. This resistance to removing state protections appears to be related to a broader distrust: in a recent global poll, the French public was the most skeptical of the free market system compared to other countries. France is also one of the most negative countries in their assessment of their country's economic conditions and the world economy, although French youth are quite optimistic about their own personal prospects.

The government says the First Job Contract (CPE), which takes effect in April, will make employers more willing to hire young people. Young people and unions maintain that the new law makes their employment prospects more insecure than they are now.

Several polls reveal that a strong majority wants the law withdrawn, with French youth especially opposed. A poll conducted March 21-22 by the French polling organization CSA found that 66 percent wanted the law withdrawn, while 25 percent opposed withdrawing it. Among those aged 18-29, three-fourths (74%) want the law withdrawn. The highest support for withdrawing the law was among 25-to-29-year-olds--78 percent; among 18-to-24-year-olds it was 72 percent.

Similarly, a poll by the French polling organization BVA conducted March 17-18 found that those who want the CPE withdrawn outnumber those who want it maintained two to one (60% withdraw, 31% maintain). Here too the number is even higher among those aged 15 to 24--68 percent want the law withdrawn--while 24 percent want it maintained.

When respondents were asked by Ipsos March 25 if they approve of Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin's decision to maintain the CPE, 63 percent said they do not, while 34 percent said they approve.

A majority, 59 percent, blames the government for the deadlock, while 26 percent blame the unions and student organizations. Sixty-three percent are also skeptical about de Villepin's willingness to work with the labor unions to resolve the issue.

French Skeptical of Free Market System

A GlobeScan poll of 20 countries around the world conducted between June and August 2005 showed that the French public is unusually skeptical about the free enterprise economic system. A majority or plurality of all of the other 19 countries polled agreed with the statement "The free enterprise system and free market economy is the best system on which to base the future of the world." France alone had a minority, 36 percent, agreeing with the statement, while 50 percent disagreed.

Ironically, China had the largest majority agreeing with the statement, 74 percent. Turkey (47%), Russia (43%) and Argentina (42%) each had just a plurality agreeing.

The same poll found that the French are unusually high in their mistrust of large companies. Fifty-five percent said they did not trust large French companies to operate in the best interest of society (compared to an average of 47 percent among the 20 countries polled), and 61 percent said they did not trust global companies operating in their country (compared to a global average of 52 percent). Eighty-six percent also said that large companies have too much influence over their national government (compared to 73 percent globally).

Perhaps most significant, an overwhelming 79 percent favored more government regulation of large companies to protect the rights of workers. The global average was 74 percent.

Economic Pessimism

A BBC poll of 32 nations conducted by GlobeScan and the Program on International Policy Attitudes between October and December 2005 also found that the French were among the most pessimistic about the direction of the economy in terms of themselves, their country and the world. France had the second-highest percentage believing economic conditions were getting worse in their country (83%), after Zimbabwe (90%); the Philippines tied with France (83%). The French were also negative when asked whether their personal economic conditions were getting better or worse. France was one of only six of the 32 nations in which a majority said their personal economic conditions were getting worse--52% in France said this.

Even their perception of the world economy was far more pessimistic than average. Seventy percent saw economic conditions in the world as getting worse (compared to a global average of 37 percent). Only one other country had such a large majority.

Youth Confidence High On Personal Prospects

Given their broad economic pessimism, French young people are surprisingly optimistic about their own economic prospects--which may help explain their readiness to press for better conditions. An Ipsos poll of French youth conducted in February found that 64 percent of those aged 15 to 25 said they are confident about their professional future (45% somewhat, 19% completely), while just one-third (36%) said they are not (20% somewhat, 16% not at all).

A plurality (45%) of those polled said they believe the new labor law will contribute to increasing insecurity of employment for young people. This concern was higher among those in the 20-to-25 age group (47%) than the 15-to-19 age group (42%). Just 23 percent overall said the new law will contribute to more hiring of young people, and 28 percent said the law won't have much influence on the labor market.

Americans, Mexicans Reject Border Fence

By Angela Stephens

President Bush meets this week with Mexican President Vicente Fox and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Cancun, Mexico, at a time when emotions surrounding immigration reform in the United States have reached fever pitch. A new Zogby poll conducted Feb. 3-16 jointly with the Centro de Investigacion para el Desarrollo, AC (CIDAC) explored a variety of issues in the US-Mexican relationship.

Half a million protesters marched through the streets of Los Angeles on Saturday in one of the largest demonstrations in recent US history, and smaller crowds gathered in other cities across the country, protesting a House bill passed in December that would make being or assisting an illegal immigrant a felony, and includes erecting a 700-mile wall along the 2,000-mile US-Mexico border.

The new poll finds that neither Mexicans nor Americans want a wall on their border. An overwhelming majority of Mexicans—90 percent—disagree with the idea of building a wall between the United States and Mexico. A large majority of Americans, 69 percent, also reject the idea, while 28 percent agree with it.

Large majorities of Americans as well as Mexicans believe the US economy benefits from Mexican immigrant labor, and believe Mexicans are discriminated against in the United States. Two-thirds of Americans, 67 percent, agreed that the US economy benefits from Mexican migrant workers, while 27 percent disagreed. Among Mexicans an overwhelming 80 percent agreed.

But although Americans believe that such migrant workers help the economy, 61 percent of Americans said they want their member of Congress to support immigration regulations that are more restrictive. Only 30 percent wanted more open regulations. The option of keeping restrictions unchanged was not offered.

Mexicans are divided on whether it would improve their lives if they crossed the border illegally to work in the United States. Forty-five percent of the Mexican respondents said it would improve their lives if they worked illegally in the United States, while 47 percent said it would not.

An overwhelming majority of Mexicans, 79 percent, believe Mexicans are discriminated against in the United States (18% disagreed), and nearly as many Americans—73 percent—agree (23% disagreed).

How They View Their Neighbor

Americans have a favorable view of Mexicans, but Mexicans have a much lower opinion of Americans, while the two people share a negative attitude toward each other’s government.

A majority of Mexicans (52%) have an unfavorable view of Americans, while only a third (36%) have a favorable view. In contrast, 84 percent of Americans view Mexicans favorably, while only 10 percent view them unfavorably.

Only a quarter (26%) of both Mexicans and Americans view the other’s government favorably, while two-thirds of Mexicans (65%) view the US government unfavorably and half (49%) of Americans view the Mexican government unfavorably. A quarter of Americans (25%) were uncertain of their feeling toward the Mexican government.

Americans and Mexicans have similar views on why Mexico has greater poverty, but disagree about why the US has greater wealth. Thirty-five percent of Americans blame the Mexican government for the country’s poverty, and 35 percent blame corruption. Mexicans give similar responses—36 percent blame the government, and 38 percent cite corruption.

Seventy percent of Americans said US wealth is due to work opportunities. Mexicans, by contrast, see US wealth as a result of the country exploiting others’ wealth—62 percent of Mexicans polled feel this way. Only 22 percent feel the United States’ wealth is due to it being a free country with plenty of work opportunities.

Despite these negative views, majorities of both populations see their countries’ relationship as important. Sixty-two percent of Americans and 52 percent of Mexicans said the US-Mexico relationship is important. Only 11 percent of Americans and 15 percent of Mexicans said it is not important.

Generally Americans have more positive views of Mexicans than Mexicans have of Americans. Both Americans (78%) and Mexicans (76%) see Mexicans as hardworking, but only a quarter (25%) of Mexicans see Americans as hardworking. Just 22 percent of Mexicans see Americans as honest, while 42 percent of Americans see Mexicans as honest. Three-fourths (72%) of Mexicans see Americans as racist and only 17 percent see Americans as tolerant.

Identity and Allegiances

Mexicans are divided on whether they see their country as belonging more to North America or Latin America, while Americans firmly see Mexico as part of Latin America. Yet significantly more Americans see Mexico as a “Western nation” than Mexicans do. Both peoples tend to view the other as a “distant neighbor” more than a friend or partner, though few see the other as a threat. Each people see their country’s impact on the other’s culture as favorable to some extent, but Mexicans see the US impact on Mexican culture as more negative than positive. Americans were more positive about Mexico’s cultural impact on the United States.

When asked if Mexico is more part of North America or Latin America, 43 percent of Mexicans said North America, while 41 percent said Latin America. Americans were more definitive on the question—66 percent said Mexico is more part of Latin America, while 28 percent said it is more part of North America.

Americans are much more likely to see Mexico as a “Western nation, like Spain, Canada or the US” than Mexicans do. Two-thirds of Americans (67%) see Mexico as a Western nation, while only a quarter (26%) of Mexicans do.

A plurality of Americans (49%) and Mexicans (36%) believe their country sees the other as a “distant neighbor.” Approximately a third of Americans (30%) believe the United States sees Mexico as a “friend,” while only 12 percent of Mexicans feel that way. One-fifth of Mexicans (20%) said their country views the United States as a “partner,” while 12 percent of Americans felt that way. Few believe their country sees the other as a threat (Americans 6%, Mexicans 18%).

In an annual poll conducted by Harris Interactive in August 2005 that asked Americans how they feel about various countries, a plurality—47 percent—said that Mexico is “friendly but not a close ally,” while 27 percent said it is a “close ally.” That compares to 48 percent who rated Canada a close ally and 37 percent who said Canada is friendly but not a close ally. In a BBC poll conducted by GlobeScan and the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) in November 2005, Mexicans also expressed negative views of the United States. Only 10 percent of Mexicans said the US influence in the world is mainly positive while 55 percent said it was mainly negative.

Yet Mexicans by a wide margin believe it is in the best interest of their country’s future to adopt a “look North” attitude rather than a “look South” attitude, according to the Zogby/CIDAC poll. A majority, 55 percent, said that Mexico should look North for its future, while 24 percent said it should look South.

Regarding cultural impact, 48 percent of Americans and 40 percent of Mexicans believe their county’s impact on the other nation has been favorable. A sizeable minority of Americans also say Mexico’s impact on the United States has been favorable (43%), but a plurality of Mexicans (44%) say the cultural impact of the United States on Mexico has been unfavorable.

Free trade

Both Mexicans and Americans believe the idea of free trade between their countries can benefit both peoples, although the Americans are much more convinced. Three-fourths of Americans (75%) agree that both peoples can benefit, compared to half (50%) of Mexicans (36% of Mexicans, 19% of Americans disagree).

A larger minority of Mexicans than Americans feel they have personally been hurt by US-Mexico free trade, while an equally small number feel they have benefited—a third of Mexicans (32%) say they have been hurt, compared to 19 percent of Americans. A fifth of each say they have been personally helped by free trade between their countries (21% Mexicans, 19% Americans). A majority of Americans (61%) and nearly half of Mexicans (47%) say they have been neither hurt nor helped personally by free trade between their nations.

For an analysis of US, Mexican and Canadian views of the North American Free Trade Agreement, click here.