February 2, 2007
Among the French who identify themselves as black, more than half say they are the victims of discrimination, a TNS Sofres survey finds.
January 30, 2007
Iranians Overwhelmingly Reject Bin Laden
Both Iranians and Americans See Terrorism as a Threat to Their Countries
Iranians Want Capacity to Enrich Uranium But Accept NPT Rules Against Developing Nuclear Weapons
Iranians and Americans Believe Islam and West Can Find Common Ground
Full Report
Questionnaire/Methodology
Iranians and Americans are both very concerned about the danger of terrorism, reject attacks against civilians overwhelmingly and share strongly negative views of Osama bin Laden.
Although the U.S. government has accused Iran's government of sponsoring international terrorism, the Iranian people themselves are somewhat more likely than Americans to oppose attacks that deliberately target civilians.
While Iranians strongly reject terrorist attacks on civilians in general and in Iraq in particular, it is important to note that they make an exception in the case of Israel. When asked specifically about Palestinian attacks against Israeli civilians, a slim majority believes they can "sometimes be justified." Iranians also tend to view Hamas and Hezbollah favorably.
These are some of the results of a wide-ranging bi-national poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org in partnership with the non-profit group, Search for Common Ground. The poll in Iran, which was fielded by an independent Iranian firm, included 134 questions, administered in face-to-face interviews from Oct. 31 - Dec. 6, 2006. The poll in the United States was conducted by Knowledge Networks during late November and early December. Both polls used probability-based national samples of 1,000 respondents or more.
Joseph Cirincione, senior vice president for national security and international policy at the Center for American Progress, said the survey results on Iranian attitudes toward bin Laden and al Qaeda were especially important to "counter the tendency to conflate the threats" faced by the United States into "one great clash of civilizations."
At a forum on the survey results, held Jan. 24 at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Cirincione stressed that, with tensions rising between the U.S. and Iranian governments, it was important "American politicians understand that the overwhelming majority of the Iranian public have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden."
The Terrorist Threat
Seven in ten Iranians view international terrorism as an important threat to Iran's vital interests including 56 percent who see it as a critical threat. Only 12 percent call it "not important." Even more Iranians are concerned about terrorist attacks in their own country. Eighty-one percent call such attacks an important threat (66% critical).
American and Iranian concerns about the threat of terrorism are comparable in intensity. Ninety-five percent of Americans see terrorism as an important threat, including 68 percent who say it is a critical threat. Only 4 percent do not see terrorism as a threat. Ninety-five percent also view "terrorist attacks in our country" as an important threat.
Both Iranians and Americans have strongly negative views of Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. Three in four Iranians (74%) and more than nine in ten Americans (94%) view bin Laden unfavorably, including large majorities (68% and 89%, respectively) who view him very unfavorably. Only 10 percent of Iranians look at the al Qaeda leader favorably (2% Americans). Nine in ten Americans have a very unfavorable opinion of bin Laden and ninety-two percent of Americans say al Qaeda poses an important threat to the United States, including 59 percent who say it poses a critical one.
Iranians, like Americans, perceive al Qaeda and Islamist militant groups as threats, though less strongly. More than half of Iranians (53%) call al Qaeda an important threat, including a third (33%) who say it is critical. Twenty percent say al Qaeda is not a threat (27 percent no answer). Similarly, 57 percent of Iranians view the threat from "Islamist sectarian militant groups" as important, including 36 percent who say is critical. Fifteen percent say it is not important at all.
Americans--not surprisingly given the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001--consider Islamic militants to be a greater threat than do Iranians. Nine in ten Americans (92%) say al Qaeda is an important threat, including six in ten (59%) who say the militant group represents a critical threat. Nine in ten Americans (92%) also call Islamic sectarian militant groups an important threat (47% critical).
In sharp contrast to their views of al Qaeda, Iranians tend to evaluate Hamas and Hezbollah favorably. Fifty-six percent see Hamas as a "mainly positive influence" in the world and only 8 percent see the Palestinian group as a negative influence. (Another 14 percent say "it depends" or "neither," while 23 percent decline to answer). They view Hezbollah even more favorably, with three in four (75%) calling the Shiite militants a positive influence, and only 6 percent labeling them a negative influence.
Americans, in contrast, have very negative views of both Hamas and Hezbollah. Hamas is rated as a negative influence in the world by 77 percent of Americans and Hezbollah by 80 percent.
Attacks on Civilians
Both Iranians and Americans were asked a series of questions about attacks on civilians. Taking these questions together, it appears that Iranians reject attacks on civilians more overwhelmingly than do Americans.
At the most general level, respondents were asked: "Some people think that bombing and other types of attacks intentionally aimed at civilians are sometimes justified while others think that this kind of violence is never justified. Do you personally feel that such attacks are often justified, sometimes justified, rarely justified, or never justified?"
A very large majority of Iranians (80%) take the strongest position that such attacks "are never justified," and another 5 percent say they are rarely justified. Only 11 percent call them sometimes (8%) or often (3%) justified.
Americans largely concur but at lower levels of intensity. Forty-six percent say that such attacks are never justified, while 27 percent say they are rarely justified. Twenty-four percent see them as sometimes (19%) or often (5%) justified.
Iranians were also asked specifically about attacks on American and Iraqi civilians, with "sometimes" or "never" justified the only options given. Nine in ten Iranians (88%) say that "attacks against Iraqi civilians in Iraq" are never justified. Nearly as many (76 percent) say "attacks against American civilians living in the United States" are never justified (15% sometimes justified).
Respondents were then asked to think "in the context of war and other forms of military conflict" and to consider whether certain types of civilians could be a legitimate target. Overwhelming majorities of Iranians reject as "never justified:" attacks on women and children (91%), the elderly (92%), and "wives and children of the military" (86%).
Americans largely agree, though larger percentages in each case said such attacks are rarely justified. This is true for attacks on women and children (72% never, 15% rarely), the elderly (71% never, 16% rarely), and wives and children of the military (74% never, 12% rarely).
Three more questions dealt with targeting civilians employed by the government. Here again, Iranians are more unequivocal than Americans in their rejection of such attacks, whether the targets are civilians employed by the government, policemen, or intelligence agents.
When Iranians judge violence in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, however, a modest majority makes an exception for some Palestinian attacks against Israeli civilians. Asked whether such attacks were either "sometimes justified" or "never justified," 53 percent of Iranians say they are sometimes justified, while 41 percent say "never." But nine in ten (90%) say attacks by Israelis against Palestinians are never justified while only 5 percent say they sometimes are.
Americans are more even-handed regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Four in five (80%) of Americans say "attacks by Palestinians against Israeli civilians" are never justified (13% sometimes), while nearly as many (71%) say attacks by Israelis against Palestinian civilians are never justified (21% sometimes). This is consistent with the many polls showing that Americans prefer the United States government not take sides in this dispute.
Iranians Want Capacity to Enrich Uranium But Accept NPT Rules Against Developing Nuclear Weapons
Americans Would Allow Limited Enrichment, Provided UN Is Given Full Access
Iranians and Americans Believe Islam and West Can Find Common Ground
Iranians Overwhelmingly Reject Bin Laden
Full Report
Questionnaire/Methodology
Most Iranians want their country to have the capacity to enrich uranium for nuclear energy, but a majority also agrees that Iran should comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which forbids signatories from developing nuclear weapons. A majority of Americans are ready to accept a deal allowing Iran to engage in limited enrichment if it also agrees to give UN inspectors full access to make sure that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.
Two concurrent surveys of public opinion in Iran and the United States, conducted by WorldPublicOpinion.org in partnership with Search for Common Ground, reveal important areas of agreement on the issue of non-proliferation. But they also demonstrate the strength of Iranian resistance to negotiating away their nuclear energy capabilities.
Joseph Cirincione, senior vice president for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress, said the poll demonstrated that both publics, overall, favored pragmatic, diplomatic solutions to their differences.
The survey showed "the common sense of both the American people and the Iranian people," Cirincione said at a forum about the study held Jan. 24 at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. "In question after question they seem to be able to rise above the rhetoric of their own leaders to find common sense solutions to some of the most crucial questions" facing the two nations.
The poll should also eliminate any doubts, said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, about whether the Iranian people back their government's stand on uranium enrichment.
"This poll put that question to rest," Parsi said at the forum, explaining that it demonstrated the high priority placed by Iranians on self-reliance, both in terms of energy and military capabilities.
The poll of the Iranian public was unprecedented in scope. The questionnaire included 134 substantive questions on a wide range of international issues, administered in face-to-face interviews in rural and urban areas from Oct. 31 - Dec. 6, 2006. Knowledge Networks executed the U.S. poll during late November and early December, 2006. Both polls used probability-based national samples of 1,000 respondents or more.
Iran's Nuclear Energy Program
An overwhelming nine out of ten Iranians say it is important for Iran to have the capacity to enrich uranium. Majorities cite as key reasons the need to secure their country's energy needs, to enhance its technical competence and to enhance its great power status. Both Iranians and Americans express concern about the threat posed by a disruption in their energy supplies.
Ninety-one percent of Iranians consider it important for Iran to have a "full-fuel-cycle nuclear program," a term widely used in the Iranian press to describe a uranium enrichment program. This includes 84 percent who say that having such a program is "very important." Only 4 percent said having the capacity to enrich such a program was not important for Iran.
Although Iran is an oil exporting country, the survey findings suggest that Iranians feel they cannot rely on their domestic supply of fossil fuels indefinitely. Fifty-nine percent say they see "disruption in energy supply" as either a critical (47%) or an important (12%) threat to Iran's vital interests over the next decade.
The poll presented respondents with a series of reasons for having uranium enrichment programs, asking them whether each was "the most important reason," "an important reason, though not the most important," "a minor reason," or "not a reason at all." 
All five of the reasons presented were enthusiastically labeled "most important" by at least half of the respondents.
The most widely-endorsed justification was that "this program secures Iran's energy needs," which was judged important by 86 percent, including 76 percent who called it the "most important" reason. The idea that such a program "enhances Iran's technical competence" was also seen as important by 86 percent of Iranians (74 percent "most important").
Also widely-endorsed (but somewhat less likely to be seen as "most important") are reasons of a more symbolic or political nature. The idea that such a program would enhance "Iran's great power status" was deemed important by 81 percent and most important by 61 percent. The argument that it would "preserve Iran's rights to nuclear energy under the Non-Proliferation Treaty" was judged important by 73 percent and most important by 59 percent.
Iranians were somewhat less convinced that the program would protect them from foreign domination. "The fact that Iran has a nuclear energy program will help deter other countries from trying to economically and politically dominate Iran," was seen as important by 68 percent (50 percent most important).
Iranians seem relatively unconcerned about the safety issues associated with nuclear energy. Eight out of ten agree with the statement, "Nuclear power is relatively safe and an important source of electricity, and interested countries should build new nuclear power plants." Only a quarter (24%) believe "the risk of terrorist acts involving radioactive materials or nuclear facilities is high," while a plurality of 39 percent say such a risk is low because nuclear facilities and materials are "securely protected."
Americans are much less enthusiastic about building new nuclear plants. Only 40 percent (compared with 80 percent of Iranians) believe that nuclear power is relatively safe and that countries should build new plants. They believe, even more strongly than Iranians, that a "disruption in energy supply" would endanger vital U.S. interests: 94 percent say this is an important threat, including 49 percent who believe it is critical.
Nuclear Weapons and the NPT
A large majority of Iranians support their country's participation in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which prohibits Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but affirms its right to develop nuclear energy. Large majorities also support a Middle East nuclear free zone and the ultimate elimination of all nuclear weapons. Americans also strongly support the NPT regime and the eventual elimination of nuclear arms. The two publics disagree about whether the Iranian government seeks to acquire such weapons, however. A large majority of Americans believe it does, while the Iranian public is divided.
A majority of Iranians (69%) say they are aware that under the NPT Iran has agreed that it will not try to acquire nuclear weapons. A majority still believes, however, that it was a "good idea" for Iran to join the treaty. Only 10 percent say it is a bad idea (24% did not answer).
A majority of Iranians also believe the United Nations should monitor compliance with the NPT, despite the fact that the UN Security Council has imposed a unique requirement on Iran to forego uranium enrichment and is considering sanctions. Fifty-three percent say they favor an active role for the United Nations in discouraging countries from acquiring nuclear weapons. A third (35%) disagree. A slim majority (54%) also expresses a positive view of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog agency, despite its refusal to verify that Iran's nuclear program has exclusively peaceful purposes.
Iranian support for the NPT may derive from concerns that Iran's neighbors could acquire nuclear weapons. Seventy-six percent of Iranians say the development of nuclear weapons by neighboring countries would be a threat; half of them (52%) think it would be a critical threat. An overwhelming majority (84%) believes that over the next fifty years "there will be more countries with nuclear weapons."
But Iranians are divided over whether Iran will be one of the states that acquire nuclear weapons. About a third of the sample (30%) say they do not believe Iran will get such weapons. Slightly fewer (27%) say it will. And 27 percent do not answer.
Americans agree with most Iranians on nearly all the major questions related to nuclear weapons proliferation. A large majority (78%) says it is a good idea for the United States to be a signatory of the NPT, though fewer Americans than Iranians say they are aware of its provisions. Like Iranians, Americans strongly favor the elimination of all nuclear weapons (82%). And majorities in both countries (71% each) say they would like to see a "nuclear-weapons-free zone in the Middle East that would include both Islamic countries and Israel."
Americans share Iranian pessimism about the future of the non-proliferation regime. They believe overwhelmingly (91%) that there will be more nuclear-armed countries within fifty years. Unlike Iranians, however, Americans are convinced that Iran will be one of these new nuclear states (86%).
Negotiations over Iran's Nuclear Program
Americans are willing to allow Iranians to enrich uranium to very low levels as long as the Iranians agree in turn to provide full access to UN inspectors. Iranians are very reluctant to giving up their uranium enrichment program and reject as insignificant a wide array of possible incentives in return for such a commitment. Americans are a bit more likely to believe that this dispute could lead to military conflict.
U.S. respondents were asked if they would support an agreement allowing Iran to enrich uranium to the very low levels necessary to produce nuclear power but not the high levels required to produce nuclear weapons. In return, Iran would be obligated to afford U.N. inspectors full access to ensure that these enrichment levels were not exceeded.
Fifty-five percent of Americans believe such a deal would be a good idea, including 53 percent of Republicans and 62 percent of Democrats. Thirty-eight percent say this would be a bad idea.
Although Iranians were not asked about this potential deal, they were asked a series of questions regarding possible incentives that might convince them to give up their uranium enrichment program entirely. They were then asked how significant each incentive was. Majorities showed great reluctance to negotiating away this capability, however, rejecting nearly all of the incentives as inadequate.
Offers such as having the United States lift economic sanctions, unfreeze the Iranians assets it holds, and repeal legislation calling for regime change, were dismissed as "not very" or "not at all significant" by majorities of Iranian respondents. An official U.S. "commitment to not use military force against Iran" was also dismissed as inadequate.
The only offer that majorities did not dismiss as insignificant was "allowing Iran to join the World Trade Organization." Thirty-nine percent saw this as at least somewhat significant for Iran. However, a plurality of Iranians (46%) say this is not a significant offer, including 35 percent who consider it "not at all significant."
Americans showed mixed readiness to provide such incentives. Majorities say they are willing to allow Iran to join the WTO (54%) and a plurality (47%) would favor ending U.S. economic sanctions. Americans are divided about whether to unfreeze Iranian assets held by the United States (39% favor, 50% oppose) and to repeal legislation calling for regime change (44% favor, 43% oppose).
Iranians were divided about whether it was likely the United States would take military action against their country. Asked whether they agree or disagree that "a military confrontation between Iran and the United States is likely to occur within the next ten years," 28 percent agree, 39 percent disagree and 20 percent are neutral (14 % no answer).
Half of the sample was asked whether they thought the United States would "take military action against Iran's nuclear facilities in the next year or two" Forty-eight percent say this is at least somewhat likely (11% very likely). Those who believe that a U.S. strike against Iran's nuclear facilities is likely, however, are not significantly more willing to look positively on the proposed incentives for giving up Iran's enrichment program.
Americans are only a bit more inclined to think military force could be used. Forty-nine percent say it is likely the United States will take military action against Iran's nuclear facilities (13% very likely). Forty-five percent consider this unlikely (9% not at all likely). Forty-one percent believe that a military confrontation is likely in the next ten years, 19 percent disagree and 35 percent are neutral.
A majority of Americans (59%) do not believe that air strikes would be able to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Nor do they think the threat of using military force is likely to convince Iran to desist from enriching uranium. An overwhelming 79 percent say they do not believe Iran would halt such activities if the United States "threatens to use air strikes against its enrichment facilities."
Iranians and Americans Believe Islam and West Can Find Common Ground
Published January 30 2007
Despite Mutual Antagonism, Half of Iranians and Most Americans Favor Direct US-Iran Talks, More Exchanges
Iranians Want Capacity to Enrich Uranium But Accept NPT Rules Against Developing Nuclear Weapons
Iranians Overwhelmingly Reject Bin Laden
Full Report
Questionnaire/Methodology
Concurrent polls of the United States and Iran reveal deep antagonism between the two publics: Iranians and Americans have largely negative views of the other's government, current president, people and culture.
But the polls also show that both Iranians and Americans support international law and institutions and share the conviction that the divide between their two countries and cultures can be bridged. Both favor a stronger United Nations, approve of taking specific steps to improve bilateral relations and believe that--despite their differences--Western and Islamic nations can find common ground.
Similar majorities of Americans and Iranians agree with the statement, "Most people in the West and the Islamic world have similar needs and wants, so it is possible to find common ground." About a third of Americans and only a quarter of Iranians choose the counter-argument that "Islamic and Western religious and social traditions are incompatible with each other."
WorldPublicOpinion.org, in partnership with Search for Common Ground, designed the parallel studies. Both polls used probability-based national samples of 1,000 respondents or more. The U.S. poll was fielded by Knowledge Networks during late November and early December 2006. The Iranian poll, which included 134 questions, was executed by an independent Iranian agency that interviewed respondents face-to-face from late October through December.
Views of Each Other
Most Iranians have negative attitudes toward the United States. Seventy-six percent say their opinion of the United States is unfavorable (65 percent very) and only 22 percent say it is favorable (5% very). Views of the current U.S. government are even worse: 93 percent unfavorable (84% very). This is about equal to the 92 percent of Iranians who hold an unfavorable opinion of President Bush (86% very).
Iranians' negative views of the United States extend to American culture (at least in general terms). More than three in four Iranians (78%) express an unfavorable opinion of American culture, including 67 percent who say very unfavorable. They are more divided in their attitudes toward the American people, however. Forty-nine percent look unfavorably on Americans (33% very) while 45 percent look favorably (9% very).
Most Americans, in turn, have negative feelings toward Iran. When asked about Iran's influence in the world, 
four in five Americans (80%) say it is mainly negative and only one in ten (10%) say mainly positive. Seventy-eight percent say they have an unfavorable view of the Iranian government, including 43 percent very unfavorable.
Americans are more likely than Iranians to have a negative view of the other country's people. Fifty-nine percent say they view the Iranian people unfavorably 20% very), while only 29 percent have a favorable opinion. .
Improving Bilateral Relations
Despite their mutually negative views of each other, Iranians and Americans tend to look positively on a series of measures aimed at strengthening U.S.-Iranian relations. Strong majorities of Americans support nearly all of the proposed steps while more modest majorities or pluralities of Iranians do.
Presented a list of possible steps for strengthening relations, Iranians tend to be most supportive (and least opposed) to improving trade relations. Fifty-two percent favor greater trade with the United States and only 26 percent are opposed. Nearly as many (51%) favor granting more access to journalists from both countries, though a large minority (39%) is opposed.
Other measures elicit more divided responses. While 48 percent of Iranians support direct talks between the two governments on issues of mutual concern, 42 percent do not. Having greater cultural, educational, and sporting exchanges between the two countries garners good support (46%) and relatively little opposition (31%). Having more "Americans and Iranians visit each other's countries as tourists" is seen as worthwhile by a plurality (48%) and opposed by nearly as many (44%).
After evaluating each approach separately, respondents were asked which was best. Iranians reach no consensus on this. Twenty percent prefer greater cultural, educational, and sporting exchanges; 20 percent direct talks on issues of mutual concern; 19 percent greater trade; 15 percent providing more access to journalists; and, 13 percent allowing more Americans and Iranians visit each other's country as tourists.
Americans are more supportive of such measures. Four out of five (79%) favor direct talks between the two governments, while only 14 percent are opposed. Sixty-five percent favor expansion of bilateral trade relations (27% oppose). Three in four (72%) strongly support measures to enhance cultural, educational, and sporting exchanges between the two countries (21% oppose) and 68% would like to see more access provided to each other's journalists (24% oppose).
Americans are less enthusiastic about the idea of having more Americans and Iranian visit each other's country as tourists: only a bare majority (51%) view such an increase as favorable while 41 percent are opposed. This was the least favored option among both publics.
When asked to pick which step they think is the best, Americans, unlike Iranians, reach a clear consensus. Sixty-four percent choose direct talks between the two governments as the single best idea. "To have greater cultural, educational, and sporting exchanges," selected by 16 percent of Americans, is the second most favored step,
Clash of Civilizations?
Although Iranians and Americans show substantial concern about the conflict between Islamic and Western cultures, majorities in both countries reject the idea that it is inevitable. Majorities in both also support having the United Nations play a strong role in the world and both tend to view globalization as positive.
The parallel polls offered respondents two arguments: "Islamic and Western religious and social traditions are incompatible with each other;" and, "Most people in the West and the Islamic world have similar needs and wants, so it is possible to find common ground." The idea that there is common ground between Islam and the West is more popular among both publics: 56 percent of Americans and 54 percent of Iranians. Only 36 percent of Americans and 24 percent of Iranians believe the two cultures are incompatible.
Nonetheless, both publics are concerned that conflict between Islamic and Western countries could threaten their country. Asked to assess the threat posed by this conflict, eight in ten Iranians (80%) rate it as important including 63 percent who rate it as "critical." An even larger nine in ten Americans (90%) say such a conflict represents an important threat (52 percent critical).
A majority of Iranians and Americans have a positive view of the United Nations. Despite recent clashes between the Iranian government and the U.N. Security Council over Iran's nuclear program, the Iranian public tends to view the United Nations positively. Asked whether the United Nations is "having a mainly positive or mainly negative influence in the world," 58 percent of Iranians say "mainly positive" and only 24 percent say mainly negative. American views of the United Nations are even more favorable: 64 percent of call its influence in the world "mainly positive."
Similarly, both publics think it would be mainly positive for the United Nations to play a significantly more powerful role in world affairs (Iranians 70%, Americans 66%), agree that the use of military force is more legitimate when the U.N. approves it (Iranians 69%, Americans 72%), and believe that the U.N. should have the right to authorize military intervention to prevent severe human rights violations, such as genocide (Iranians 69%, Americans 83% from a July 2006 poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs).
Majorities of Iranians not only believe that globalization is mostly good for Iran (63%) but also that global companies are mostly positive (58%). They are a bit more positive about these issues than Americans, 60 percent of whom see globalization as mostly good and 49 percent of whom see global companies as mainly positive (July 2006 Chicago Council poll).
Iranians, however, are more negative than Americans when it comes to cultural globalization. Asked whether "having movies, TV and music from different parts of the world available in Iran" is good or bad, the Iranian public is divided. Fifty percent say good (14% very good) and 48 percent say bad (19% very bad). Americans are overwhelmingly positive (87% good, 41% very good) about such foreign cultural products.