World Public Opinion

Egyptian Public to Greet Obama With Suspicion

Questionnaire/methodology (PDF)

A new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll finds Egyptians continue to view US foreign policy quite negatively and see President Obama as closely aligned with it. At the same time, Obama has much better ratings than Bush had, and there are signs of thawing feelings toward the US.

President Barack Obama appearing on Al Arabiya TV on January 27, 2009 (Photo: Al Arabiya)

Asked how much confidence they have in Obama to do the right thing in international affairs, 39 percent say they have some or a lot of confidence--up sharply from the 8 percent who viewed George W. Bush positively in January 2008. Views of the United States government have also improved with favorable views rising to 46 percent from 27 percent in an August 2008 WorldPublicOpinion.org poll.

However, there has been little change in the views of US foreign policy. Sixty-seven percent say that the US plays a negative role in the world.

Large majorities continue to believe the US has goals to weaken and divide the Islamic world (76%) and control Middle East oil (80%). Eight in 10 say the US is seeking to impose American culture on Muslim countries (80%). Six in ten say it is not a goal of the US to create a Palestinian state. These numbers are virtually unchanged from 2008.

When asked about Obama's goals, Egyptians' views are almost exactly the same as their views of US goals. Sixty percent say they have little or no confidence that Obama will do the right thing in international affairs.

"Egyptians appear to be saying to Obama, 'Show me you are really different,'" comments Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, a project managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland.

The poll was conducted through face-to-face interviews from April 25-May 12 with 600 urban Egyptians. The margin of error is 4.1 percent.

Democracy in Egypt

When Obama gives his much-awaited speech in Cairo, many will be listening closely to how he addresses the sensitive question of democracy in Egypt. In 2005 George W. Bush called for greater democracy in the region, which was followed by some liberalization in Egypt. While the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood continued to be banned, some affiliated candidates were allowed to run for office independently. However, when these candidates did well in the elections, the Mubarak government reversed its movement toward liberalization and the Bush administration abruptly stopped pressing for it.

Egyptians view American support for democracy with a jaundiced eye. Only 6 percent think the US favors democracy in Muslim countries irrespective of a government's position toward the US, while 53 percent say the US only favors democracy if the government is cooperative with the US. Four in ten think the US opposes democracy in Muslim countries.

Obama has not strengthened the image of the US as committed to democracy in Muslim countries; indeed, the number saying that the US opposes democracy in Muslim countries is up 14 points, and the number saying that the US unequivocally supports democracy is down 10 points from August 2008.

The Egyptian public shows strong support for democracy. Three quarters say it is very important to live in a democracy and another 24 percent say it is somewhat important.

Sixty-three percent would like to have international observers monitor elections in Egypt, which in 2005 were marred by violence and widespread accusations of irregularities.

Muslim Brotherhood

A high-profile controversy in Egypt and the US is whether the Muslim Brotherhood should be allowed to participate in elections. Many critics have accused it of not being genuinely committed to democracy, but seeking to impose a fundamentalist Islamic state.

The Muslim Brotherhood insists that it is committed to democracy, though it has at times said that it seeks to have a body of Islamic scholars who would have the power to veto legislation that it deemed to be contrary to the Koran.

Among the Egyptian public, views of the Muslim Brotherhood are positive. Sixty-four percent express positive views, 19 percent say they have mixed views and just 16 percent express negative views.

An even larger majority (69%) believe that the Muslim Brotherhood favors democracy. Only 22 percent think that it is still too extreme and not genuinely democratic.

At the same time, the Egyptian public shows sympathy for some Islamist ideas about democracy. Six in ten think the Egyptian government should be based on a form of democracy unique for Islam, as compared to 39 percent who say it should be based on universal principles of democracy. Three-quarters agree with the Muslim Brotherhood's idea that a body of religious scholars should have veto power over laws it believes are contrary to the Koran. While two-thirds say a non-Muslim should be able to run for elected office, only 36 percent say a non-Muslim should be able to run for President.

Afghanistan

Another controversy Obama is likely to face concerns US troops in Afghanistan. Sixty percent say they want the operation in Afghanistan ended now and two-thirds disapprove of the recent increase in the number of US troops there.

However, these majority attitudes appears to be based on the assumption--held by 67 percent--that the Afghan people want NATO forces to leave now. Among those who hold this belief, 85 percent want NATO forces out, while among those who believe most Afghans want NATO troops to stay a while longer, a remarkable 92 percent say the troops should remain.

The most recent ABC/BBC/ARD poll of the Afghan public conducted in January of this year found that 63 percent of Afghanis continued to approve of the presence of US troops in Afghanistan while 59 percent approved of the NATO/ISAF forces. Though there has also been a decline in positive feelings toward the US, large majorities continued to oppose the return of the Taliban.

Obama Changing the Way Germans See US

But Many Oppose Continuing Afghan Mission

Published on June 4, 2009

Questionnaire/methodology (PDF)

According to a new WorldPublicOpinion.org poll of the German public, when President Obama speaks to Germans on Friday, he will encounter an audience that is not only positive about Obama himself, but is beginning to lean positively toward the US as well.

Barack Obama on a campaign visit to Berlin, Germany in July 2008 (Photo: David Katz/Obama for America)

At the same time, disagreements remain on US policies on climate change, the use of military force in general, and, most importantly, the operation in Afghanistan.

A striking 89 percent of Germans say they have confidence in Obama to "do the right thing in world affairs."

For the first time since the Iraq war a plurality of Germans express positive views of the US. Forty-four percent of Germans now say the US is playing a mainly positive role in the world, while 34 percent see it as playing a negative role. In 2008 BBC found only 20 percent thinking the US was a positive influence, and Pew found just 31 percent who viewed the US favorably.

The number of Germans who think the US treats Germany fairly has jumped to 48 percent from 33 percent in August 2008. Forty-two percent still say the US "abuses its greater power to make us do what the US wants," but this is down from 61 percent.

A modest majority (54%) currently sees the US as "generally cooperative with other countries"; while 27 percent say it is not (19 percent say "it depends" or do not answer).

At the same time, the German public's more benign view of the US does not extend to every global issue. A clear majority (56%) disapproves of how the US is dealing with climate change; only 25 percent approve. A full two-thirds think "the US uses the threat of military force to gain advantages." Fifty-four percent disapprove of the recent increase of US troops in Afghanistan.

And on the world financial crisis, a big majority (68%) thinks US economic policies have "contributed a lot" to the downturn in the German economy.

"Germans seem to clearly like Obama and are beginning to renew some of their warmth toward the US, but they still have concerns about some US policies, such as those on climate change and the operation in Afghanistan," comments Steven Kull, director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, an international project managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland.

The poll of 1000 German adults was conducted by telephone from April 29 to May 14 by the German polling firm Ri*QUESTA GmbH, a member of the WorldPublicOpinion.org network. The findings have a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent.

Afghanistan

The area of strongest potential disagreement between Obama and the German people is likely to be the operation in Afghanistan, in which German troops are participating. Currently Germany contributes about 3,500 troops under NATO command, the third largest national contingent. Based in the north, German troops see intermittent combat and have suffered 30 combat deaths in the course of the operation.

Germans seem to have some conflict about the Afghan operation. A narrow plurality--49 to 45 percent--disapproves of the NATO mission in Afghanistan. A slight majority (52%) wants to end the mission now, while 42 percent want it to continue.

On the other hand an overwhelming majority of Germans say they would also be very concerned if the Taliban were to return to power. Asked how they would feel "If the Taliban were to regain power in Afghanistan," 78 percent say this would be "very bad," and another 15 percent call it "somewhat bad." Only 3 percent of Germans think this outcome might turn out to be neutral or good.

"Obama's biggest challenge and opportunity is to convert German concern about the potential return of the Taliban into support for continued German participation in the Afghan operation" comments Steven Kull.

One of the sources of opposition to the operation may be the assumption that most of the Afghan people want to the NATO mission to end. A majority of Germans (55%) thinks "most people in Afghanistan want NATO forces to leave now." Among those Germans who hold this belief, 74 percent want the mission ended. However among those who believe most Afghans want NATO to stay a while longer (33%), a remarkable 78 percent say the troops should remain.

The most recent ABC/BBC/ARD poll of the Afghan public (conducted in January of this year) found that 63 percent of Afghans approved of the presence of US troops in Afghanistan, while 59 percent approved of the NATO/ISAF forces.